‘Just say no’ is not enough


By Jose Angel Garcia
(The University of Sheffield) 

In less than one month Mexico will have a new president, a new administration and, perhaps, some different public policies. After six years under President Calderon’s government, with several international drug lords captured or killed, 70,000 illegal fire arms and 150 tons of cocaine seized, but more importantly, over 50,000 deaths, certain sectors of the population are demanding a change in -what they consider- is a failed public security policy towards drug trafficking. While politicians, such as former President Ernesto Zedillo, and the members of the Global Commission on Drug Policy argue for the decriminalization of drugs; other actors, like Javier Sicilia and the Mexican businessman Ricardo Salinas Pliego, go beyond by proposing the legalization and even free supply of drugs. Regardless of how different their suggestions are, all of them tend to draw a comparison between the previous alcohol prohibition and today’s drug trafficking problem. By arguing that, as it occurred with alcohol, the decriminalization of drugs will end with the drug lords, mafias and criminal organizations, they ensure the government will be able to tackle the drugs consumption issue as a health problem, treating those who are addicts and deterring consumption through prevention and education campaigns. This sounds good in theory; however, reality can be different.

Considering the proposed options, on the one hand, there have been different examples of prevention campaigns around the world. For instance, although different from Mexico's current drug trafficking scenario, in the 1980s President Reagan attempted to do what President Calderon has tried in these six years: to eradicate the supply of drugs and reduce their availability. As it was considered that interdiction and law enforcement where not enough (just as now in Mexico), the former First Lady Nancy Reagan started what is considered the most popular drug prevention approach in the US: the “Just say no” –to drugs– campaign. Attempting to educate the youth about drugs and drug abuse, she coordinated the creation of more than 10,000 clubs around the country, the investment of millions of dollars in the campaign, the organization of high level conferences and achieved an incredible media exposure. Nevertheless, the “Just say no” campaign (which evolved into the current D.A.R.E) proved to be ineffective in preventing drugs’ consumption and, under some conditions, was in fact counterproductive.

On the other hand, considering the constant comparison made between the illegal drugs and alcohol cases, it is important to analyze the results from Mexico’s National Poll about Addictions 2011, which showed two interesting facts. First, different from 2002 to 2008, when drugs’ consumption doubled from 0.7% to 1.4%, from 2008 to 2012 its consumption stabilized. However, in the case of alcohol, its intake increased from 44.1% to 51.4% in the same period of time. Even worse, the black market for this 'legalized drug' has been increasing in the last years and now 4 of each 10 bottles of alcohol sold in Mexico are adulterated.  From here, several things can be inferred. First, it could be argued (but not ensured) that despite the price of certain drugs –as cocaine– has been reducing in the last years, due to the current government strategy against drug trafficking, the illegal drugs are now less available. Therefore, and in line with the results of the Analysis on Tobacco, Alcohol and other Drugs of 2003 in Mexico, the population is turning into a substitute -legal- drug of easier access: alcohol.  Secondly, as it is demonstrated by the alcohol case in Mexico, legalization and decriminalization of something, does not automatically stop the existence of mafias or a black market for that commodity. As it is argued by the security analyst Alejandro Hope,  when there are few restrictions on the production, exchange and use, there is high availability and low price, bringing the black market and its negative consequences to their lowest level, however there tends to be more consumption. When there are many restrictions, there is low availability and high prices, so that there is less consumption but an increasing black market. Thirdly, and related to the previous two, considering the current scenario in which drug consumption has not increased, neither reduced, but stabilized, the legalization of drugs would produce a considerable increase in drug consumption. Although it is not possible to know the exact percentage (as there are no specific figures about price elasticity of demand for cocaine and other drugs in Mexico), studies in the US have demonstrated that a 10% reduction in their price would produce an increase of between 4% and 10% in the consumption of cocaine and of 3% in the case of marijuana  Finally, but no less important, the constant increase in alcohol intake in Mexico should make us think: if we cannot provide appropriate treatment for alcoholism, even less to control or diminish the intake of alcohol, would we be able to do it with other drugs such as cocaine?

It is clear that Mexico’s ‘war on drugs’, with a prohibitionist approach that considers drugs a security issue, has produced the undesirable outcome of thousands of deaths. As neither us (citizens) -and I would expect- nor the government want more deaths in this war, Enrique Peña Nieto will have to come out with a strategy that reduces the direct confrontation towards the organized crime. However, it is necessary to understand that the legalization of drugs and education/prevention policies alone are not the solution either: “Just say no” is not enough if there is plenty of offer.

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